The collective bottom of bulk commodities may stabilize in the fourth quarter

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

A-share market shock caused a global chain reaction, and commodities were not immune.

on the 24th, commodity prices hit a "Black Monday", most varieties hit a five-year low. Among them, LME copper price closed at 4953 US dollars / ton, and fell to 4855 US dollars / ton at one time, which was a new low in six years. In the

commodity market, most varieties are in a bear market cycle, and the demand side began to decline two or three years ago, so this price has been in the downward process. " Southwest futures senior researcher Xia Xuezhao thinks.


global macroeconomic weakness is considered to be the main driver of this round of commodity long-term decline. However, due to the unclear signs of stabilization of China's economy, the main demand body, most market participants believe that the long-term bottom of commodities has not yet appeared.

"China's economy itself is in a period of transformation. Many industries have overcapacity and are now in the stage of de capacity. China needs to find a new growth point. " Xia Xuezhao said.


commodities hit the bottom collectively on the 24th. Affected by the collapse of global stock markets such as China, the United States and Japan, the prices of bulk commodities suffered "Black Monday", and most of them dropped to new lows since 2009. Among the


, LME copper price fell 1.8% to $4953 / T, and fell to $4855 / T, a new low in six years. LME aluminum price closed at 1521.5 US dollars / ton, a new low since June 2009. The new LME price also hit a low level in five years. The prices of


crude oil also experienced a sharp decline. The futures prices of Brent crude oil and U.S. crude oil fell to the lowest points in more than six years. The future contract price of European benchmark Brent crude oil fell 3.7% to 43.8 US dollars / barrel, which was the first time that the oil price fell below $45 per barrel since March 2009. On the domestic commodity futures market, there are more than ten varieties of limit.

"in recent days, the stock market has driven commodities, and market panic is spreading." According to Xia Xuezhao. "The unexpected low purchasing manager index of China's manufacturing industry released last Friday has cast doubt on the stability of the domestic economy," said a researcher at the financial business headquarters of another major domestic futures company. Before that, the 7% growth of GDP in the second quarter was very confusing to many investors, believing that China's fundamentals had stabilized. And this purchasing manager index will show the fundamentals of the second quarter. The economy is still going down and the demand is slow. " In fact, commodity prices ultimately depend on the relationship between supply and demand. Commodities have been in the downward channel since 2011, when the global macro-economy was weak.


in early trading on the 24th, the Bloomberg commodity index once fell 1.5%, to the lowest level since August 1999. The S & P GSCI index, which tracks 24 raw materials, trades at its lowest price since 2002. Commodity prices fell to their lowest level since 2002, reversing the "super cycle" gains of the previous decade. In the


commodity market, most varieties are in a bear market cycle. The demand side started to decline two or three years ago, so the price has been in a downward trend According to Xia Xuezhao.

according to the researcher of the above financial business headquarters, "the sharp fall of a shares on the 24th triggered a panic drop in the global market. Similarly, in the commodity market, China has always been a consumer of major commodities such as nonferrous metals, iron ore and crude oil. However, as China's economic growth slows down, the decline in demand has triggered a fall in commodity prices. "


on the 25th, with the stabilization of Asian, European and American stock markets, commodity prices stopped plummeting, and the Bloomberg commodity index rose 1.01%, and most commodities rebounded to a certain extent.


have not been seen for a long time.


are not optimistic about the bottom of the long-term decline of commodities in this round. Most people interviewed by 21st century economic report are not optimistic. Li Ke, a macro researcher of


China Merchants futures, said, "it will take 1-2 years to observe the bottom of bulk commodities, and wait for signs of economic stabilization and exchange rate stabilization. Now, commodities are still in a downward channel, and economic indicators show no signs of stabilizing. " Xia Xuezhao believes that the "second quarter" and "spkds" will start from the bottom of commodity market. In the long run, China's demand will slow down for a long time. However, many commodities have also fallen to the low point of more than ten years ago, and there is not much room for decline. In the next two or three years, they will be in a relatively low price range with repeated shocks. " In fact, since June, the fluctuation of domestic A-share market has also affected the pricing of commodities to a certain extent.

the researchers of the financial business headquarters explained that "the second quarter of this year was the biggest period of A-share market growth, which brought about the growth of financial industry and consumer market. However, with the sharp fall of the stock market in June, the domestic economic data may decline to a certain extent and form a new bottom on the basis of other import and export, investment and other data unchanged.


infrastructure, real estate and industrial data also show that the macro economy is still declining. According to the


economic data, in the first seven months, China's infrastructure investment accumulated to 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.63% year-on-year, and a decrease of 0.56 percentage points compared with the growth rate of the previous six months. In the first seven months, China's real estate development investment was 5.3 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.3% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.3% lower than that in January June, and 9.4% lower than that in the same period last year. From January to July, the national automobile output was 1.518 million, a significant decrease of 11.76% year-on-year.

the researcher of the financial business headquarters explained, "although the house prices in the first tier cities began to pick up with the rise of A-share market in the second quarter of this year, these sales are all de stocking, and there is not much new investment in real estate. It's the same with infrastructure, and construction is falling. "

  However, Li Ke said, "since June, there has been a certain increase in financial funds and capital construction. Commodities will have a short-term stabilization in the fourth quarter. " In addition, competition between suppliers has accelerated the decline of commodities. Xia Xuezhao said, "foreign mines have comparative advantages in cost. In recent years, they have continued to crack down on iron ore prices by substantially increasing production and forcing some high-cost mines to withdraw from the market. A few years ago, foreign mines accounted for 60% to 70% of the domestic market, and now it is more than 80%

"China's economy itself is in a period of transformation. Many industries have overcapacity and are now in the stage of de capacity. China needs to find a new growth point. " Xia Xuezhao said. "

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