Styrene: Saudi device parking balance broken?

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

on May 14, force majeure came out from Chevron Phillips device in Saudi Arabia. This news broke the relatively rigid styrene structure, and the market changed from long short game to long speculation. The market price also broke through the resistance level of 11000 yuan / T in the early stage, and the spot transactions of 11150 yuan / T and 11200 yuan / T were completed. The production capacity of


shatechevron Phillips units is 777000 tons, accounting for 6% of the total capacity in Asia (excluding China). According to the data of China Customs in recent years, the total amount of goods imported from Saudi Arabia in 2013 and 2014 were 450000 tons and 490000 tons respectively, accounting for 12% and 13% of the total import volume of that year respectively. In 2015, according to the available first quarter data, China's total imports from Saudi Arabia were 126000 tons, accounting for 13.5% of the total imports, and the overall level was basically the same as that of the previous two years.


from the above data, it is not difficult to see that China's import source from Saudi Arabia is relatively stable, with an average of about 40000 tons per month. As Saudi Arabia's supply of goods is mostly contract goods for downstream factories, the shutdown of Chevron devices will inevitably affect the downstream contract volume.

At present, there are two kinds of rumors about the device in the

market: restart next week and stop for four weeks. According to the understanding and analysis of some market operation ideas, the latter is more likely to stop for four weeks. Therefore, the market and contract volume will be reduced by at least 40000 tons from the end of May to June. Although the figure of 40000 tons seems small, due to the relatively low inventory of the current port, once the downstream factories are in a relatively low level Outsourcing due to contract losses is bound to boost the market mentality and confidence. The market price may be further rebounded and upward, and the Asian styrene dollar market price will rise as a whole. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the market still has a good directional expectation.

However, due to the fact that the current styrene market price has seriously overstocked the profits of downstream EPS and PS factories, and the operating rate of these two main downstream products has been significantly reduced, it is still uncertain whether the continuously rising price can attract downstream factories to enter the market and purchase. Finally, the high market price needs to be digested and paid by the downstream. In addition, from the end of May to June in South Korea The overhaul of the plant will be completed and the supply of near ocean sources is expected to increase theoretically.


generally speaking, the current styrene market is more affected by its own supply and demand side. Under the situation that the downstream demand side changes little, the overall supply side change will directly affect the market mentality and business operation ideas, and the force majeure of Saudi chevron device may tilt the balance of relative deadlock.

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